'Activities, Geography, and Tourism' [Download PDF]
Abstract: This paper develops a model of comparative advantage in international tourism. It describes a demand function with an underlying population of consumers having discrete choices over worldwide locations to undertake activities. The resulting system of equations is shown to be observationally equivalent to the standard gravity equation in international trade, implicating a parsimonious way to learn about a country's competitiveness and economic dependency on international tourism. With an estimated demand elasticity of four, the calculated welfare gains from international tourism range from 0.2% for the US up to 54% for the Maldives and are highest for the majority of small island developing states.
'The Value of Time in International Trade' [Download PDF]
Abstract: This paper develops a theoretical framework of consumer demand to explain international trade flows by mode of transport. The model features on the supply side a component of transport and time costs that firms minimise with respect to choosing an optimum transport mode for exporting. The estimated value of time ranges from 0.2 for seaborne to 45.6 Euros per tonne per hour for airborne trade, resulting into two important policy implications. First, the paper shows that slow steaming could reduce the CO2 emissions from international trade by a significant amount and with only little impacts on welfare. Second, the model and estimated parameters indicate that aviation's contribution to the gains from international trade are, on average, as large as 30%.
Work in progress
'International Trade and Tourism in a CO2-constrained World' (with Andreas Schäfer)
'Climate-neutrality versus carbon-neutrality for aviation biofuel policy' [Link] (with Lynnette Dray and Marcus O. Köhler). Transport. Res. D Transport. Environ. 23 (2013): 64-72.
Abstract: We model global aviation biofuel uptake under a future emissions trading policy, and compare aviation CO2 emission reductions with climate impact reductions (CO2 and non-CO2). We find that climate impacts in terms of global warming potential are less favourable than CO2 climate impacts for biofuel use, dependent on the time horizon of the chosen output climate metric. Results indicate that widespread use of aviation biofuel may lead to a scenario in which aviation growth is accompanied by flat or decreasing carbon emissions but an increasing total climate impact.